News
28/3/2014

IMIM: A new system to predict the incidence of myocardial infarction in the next decade

IMIM: A new system to predict the incidence of myocardial infarction in the next decade


News from IMIM


IMIM researchers together with the Department of Health of the Government of Catalonia have developed and validated a system named CASSANDRA, which provides information on the incidence of heart attack in the next ten years. The estimates are made based on expected demographic changes and the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors.

Using CASSANDRA the authors have estimated that up to 2022, the incidence of myocardial infarction in Spain in individuals between 35 and 74 years will be 523 cases per 100,000 men and 232 cases per 100,000 women, only if you consider the aging of the Spanish population. Maria Grau, a researcher at the Research Group on Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Genetics at the IMIM and first author of the article explains that "one could lower the incidence to 486 per 100,000 men and to 222 per 100,000 women by improving the cardiovascular risk profile of the population. For example, if decrease to 8 mg/dl the average level of total cholesterol, or reduce by 5% the prevalence of diabetes in both sexes and 4 and 2% the prevalence of tobacco in men and women, respectively."

More information:
IMIM news (in Catalan)

Reference:
Grau M, Subirana I, Vila J, et al. J Epidemiol Community Health. Validation of a population coronary disease predictive system: the CASSANDRA model. doi:10.1136/jech-2013-203516